The Monday Morning Hangover
Greg fancies himself a bit of a fantasy baseball connoisseur and the rest of us just humor him. To his credit though, the man does collect stats and useless player minutiae like others collect belly button lint. Direct TV's Extra Innings package and Pat Sajak's baseball radio hour are the fuel that drive his summer obsession with men in polyester. We caged this fantasy freak as he chronologically re-ordered his complete '87 Fleer set by player's date of birth and sat him down in the PBR Lazy E Boy for a grab bag of questions on his favorite subject in this week's Monday Morning Hangover. Who's caught your eye so far this young season? Well, there have been a few people. Adam Dunn- He worked with Chris Chambliss in the off-season on his swing, and hitting the ball to all fields, and it’s really paying off. He’s more patient at the plate (even though he walked approx. 3 billion times last year) and not swinging at a lot of bad pitches. This is especially painful since I drafted Dunn for the past two years, but was so frustrated with him, I decided to pass this season. Of course, the year I give up on him, is the year he is great. Jermaine Dye- Tough not to see how well he’s doing. Undrafted in a lot of shallow leagues. He’s gonna be really good this year. Tony Womack- He just seems to be out to prove something this year, and I believe that’s, “I don’t suck THAT bad.” Although he’s suffering from a strained tricep right now, and Marlon Anderson is doing a great job filling in, but he should be back to starting soon. Womack doesn’t exactly have a long history of success, so temper your expectations, and enjoy it while it lasts. C.C. Sabathia- He’s a much better pitcher than he’s given credit for being. Jose Acevedo- Here’s someone I really, really like, and was sure to pick up in both of my leagues. Don’t make the mistake I first made, he is not the pitcher formerly known as Juan Acevedo. Totally different guy. Much, much better too. In 27 innings pitched last season, Jose hurled (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?statsId=6747), three quality starts (in three GS), this season, in his first three starts, he tossed 3 straight quality starts (how many times can I say the word “starts” in a sentence?) Anyway, his last performance vs. Pittsburgh on Sunday was solid, minus the 5 ER’s, but not outstanding. I’m chalking that up to the rain delay, and the fact that he’s not Pedro or Schilling (editorial note: rationalization in progress.) That Reds offense is better than people think, and I really think Acevedo is poised for a big season. He K’s about a batter per inning, and last year held batters to a .184 BAA, and so far hitters are only hitting .174 off him this year. Pretty solid, especially from a guy that was essentially unknown before the season started. I’m hoping for 15 wins, 190 K’s, an ERA around 3.50 and a WHIP of 1.00. Nate Robertson- Ok, what is going on with the Tigers? Nate Robertson has turned into Jack Morris. I’m not sure how long this will last either, but man, 30 K’s in 23 innings is pretty nice. I think Irod brings a lot more to a team, and a pitching staff, than people would like to admit. Ask the people of Southern Florida. Who might keep it up and who is just a mirage of small sample size? Something tells me that I could pitch against Montreal and not give up an ER. Of course, that’s ridiculous. I’d probably give up at least two. Obviously, I’m not going to waste everyone’s time telling you that Arod, Giambi, Sheffield, V.Wells, Delgado, etc. will eventually hit. But two weeks into the season there are a few people I think will definitely realize they’re not supposed to be that good. Scott Posednik- Everyone had written this guy off, and I was one of them. Oh, sure he’s playing well right now, but his average has slowly been dropping and I think he’ll come back to earth. He is running though, so he will provide help in sb’s. I don’t think he’ll hit 20 homeruns, but I think he’ll match last season’s totals. Dontrelle Willis- Something tells me that I could pitch against Montreal and not give up an ER. Of course, that’s ridiculous. I’d probably give up at least two. But hey, Dontrelle had a not-so great second half last season. He’s working on a changeup, and when he gets that perfected, I think it will be a great compliment to his fastball and slider, but I expect a very up and down season from him along the way. He’s someone I’d be trading high right now. Moises Alou- Where did this come from? Either he’s mad about the playoffs, getting some serious protection from the rest of the lineup and seeing more fastballs, or is taking some magical, ahem, potion to help him play better. Looking at Alou, you can pretty much rule out that last option. I really just think with the addition of Lee, Alou is seeing better pitches. And he’s always been a solid hitter, just unlucky as far as injuries go. I do think he’ll have a solid season, .290 30 hr’s, 95 Rbi’s, but I don’t know if he can keep up this Bonds-like pace. Great time to trade him. Luis Gonzalez- Oh he’ll hit. He always hits. But that arm of his is hanging on by a thread. Literally. He has a partial ligament tear in his elbow, and is so concerned about it. You may have wondered why, when throwing from the OF, he looks like a 12-year old girl, or Johnny Damon. He’s off to a great start, but trading him would be my #1 priority. He might not get hurt. Although the over/under is mid-June that he does. Guys that will keep it up. Dunn is legit. Carlos Zambrano is great. Someone I really wanted, but missed out on in both my leagues. He shouldn’t put up Pedro numbers (like he’s doing), but similar numbers to last year, plus 2-3 more wins should be expected. Although there is a risk of Dusty’s Destruction, since Zambrano threw a lot of pitches last year. But I think he’ll be good. Who am I leaving out? Probably a lot. Jermaine Dye will keep going. 30-100 is my prediction. I’m also expecting a big season from Marcus Giles. And if J.D. Drew stays healthy, he’s going to make some owners very, very happy. Five players you'd like to roadtrip with and why? David Wells- You know he knows where all the good bars and strip clubs are. And the stories he’d tell . . . whooo, can’t put a value on that kind of entertainment. Greg Maddux- One of my all time favorite players. I’m sure he has some amazing stories. Plus, I have so many questions to ask the Professor. Some serious baseball nostalgia right there. And he lives in Vegas, so you know he can party like a rock star. Jorge Posada- He seems like such a great guy. My girlfriend and I are big fans. She affectionately calls him “Rizzo the River Rat” (of Muppets fame). One of my all-time favorites. Plus, as far as stories go, catchers, I’m sure have a lot to tell. And since I’m a huge Yankee fan, and he’s one of the original recent “Yankee Dynasty” members, he’d be fun to have with us. Kevin Millar- Seems like a fun guy, and someone who could really give me a run for my money in Beer Pong. Barry Bonds- I want to see if he is as big a jerk as people make him out to be. Once again, I think he’d have some great stories (see a theme here . . . drunken nostalgia). I would be willing to bet that he’d be a nice guy. I find it strange that I’m writing that, since I’m not a big fan of his, but I bet I’d be pleasantly surprised. And if I could take one baseball-player-related-yet-not-actual-baseball-player, I’d take Brett Tomko’s new wife, Julia Schultz. Ay ya yay! She is so hot. I should have been a mediocre pitcher. What's the first stat you look for when evaluating a fantasy player? Hitter and pitcher? There really isn’t one thing I look at first. It’s a combination of things. For pitchers, obviously I look at won-loss, era, whip, the standards. But the two biggest things I look at that really tell me the most about a pitcher is K/BB and BAA (batting average against). I also like to take bullpen into consideration. Of course, that doesn’t always work flawlessly, as Tim Hudson owners can attest to last season (Foulke’s four blown saves were all in Hudson starts), but it is something to think about. If it comes down to Ryan Vogelsong or John Lackey, I’d probably go with Lackey since the Anaheim bullpen is stronger (although, realistically, I wouldn’t go with either of those two). For hitters, I like to see the K/BB ratios, and see if there’s a positive trend (more walks, less k’s) from year to year. Carlos Beltran is a perfect example, as his K rate has decline, his walk rate has risen. His “hello, I’m a huge superstar” year was only a matter of time. I think this is the year. I also look for patterns. Upward or downward trends, age, team, etc. Also common sense stuff. If someone seems to be an injury risk, or is nursing an injury, I’ll only draft them if I can get them late (took Nevin late in one league. Worth the risk in that particular round. Paying off for me.) For both hitters and pitchers, I like to look at 1st half vs. 2nd half performances. Lots of times the overall stats are a little misleading. A hot start or a strong second half can really change the value and projections of players, especially young ones. Whats the one quality of a fantasy GM that can separate him from the pretenders? Persistence. This is a very vague term that encompasses many things. To be good at fantasy baseball you’ve got to be on top of things (and not be ashamed about being a total geek). You’ve got to check your super-secret fantasy sites daily, stick with star players when they slump, be very, very active on the waiver wire, and acquire star players or players with potential when their value is at their lowest. In one league, I sent Kevin Millar and Kelvim Escobar to a team for Aubrey Huff. Gives me a legitimate star at my 1B/3B, and an open bench spot (which helps) to pick up the hot hand. If you’re not persistent, you’re not going to win. Did the Padres tailors run out of material or did they really intend to wear diauretic brown road unis? I think they were originally white, but washed them with some dark brown stuff that ran. They figured there weren’t enough teams sporting the color “diarrhea” and they decided to give it a whirl. That’s my unofficial explanation. If you'd made the show, what would the back of your baseball card say? Looks slimmer in person. 
A mini-frige, a recliner and Direct TV.
Living the dream.