I'll Trade You This $5 Bill for Your $20
Looks like trading season is officially open. Every year, around this time, it's like a shopping spree for the rich, and an ass-whooping for the poor. Some teams are building for the playoffs, while others are rebuilding for 2007. And this weekend kicked off the fun. Of course, now that the proverbial dust has settled where Carlos Beltran and Freddy Garcia, arguably, the two biggest names on the trading block have been moved, we can take a closer look at the winners and losers. And most importantly, I’ll discuss the fantasy impact of each trade, and how it translates into value and expectations for each player. And I’ll also try to keep the genitalia jokes to a minimum. This is serious stuff here.
Ok, so let’s get down to brass tacks.
Trade #1: Carlos Beltran to Houston, Octavio Dotel and cash to Oakland, Mark Teahen-Mike Wood-John Buck to Kansas City.
Who’s the big winner?
The Oakland A’s. That’s right. In fact, if you listen real close, you can hear A’s fans celebrating the end of their Blue Period . . . the Arthur Rhodes Era. “But dude, Houston got Beltran, how can Oakland be the big winner?” Good question. Here’s your answer. As of yesterday, the Oakland bullpen had successfully converted 13 save opportunities . . . but had blown an incredible 15. Go ahead. Read that again. Frame of reference: Jose Mesa just converted his 17th save in a row over the weekend. Yeah, I know. But who cares right? They’ve won some of those games? Yes, but a quick glance at the standings shows Texas, Oakland, Anaheim and Boston all about 2 1/2 games within each other. So had the A’s converted 50-75% of those saves, they’d be in the drivers seat, at least for now. Interestingly enough, the normally light-hitting Athletics have survived Chavez’s broken hand, thanks to the rebirth of Erubial Durazo, the re-heating of Jermaine Dye, and the steady development of Bobby Crosby (now up to .275, with 9 HR’s). And of course, the three-headed monster of Hudson, Mulder and Zito, along with sidekicks Redman and Harden, have done their fair share as well (although you could make a case against Zito). Add Dotel, an incredible closer, with (if I may borrow a Gammonsism) electric stuff, into the mix and you have a much better situation. He's probably a wonderful individual too. That means, Rhodes can go back to setting up, a role he’s far more comfortable in (ask the Mariners). Leaving Mecir, Deuscherer and Bradford can be brought in for matchups, with Deuscherer handling long relief when necessary. Suddenly, that awful bullpen doesn’t look so bad anymore. You’ll have to ask Bill James about win/shares, but it doesn’t take a genius to realize this trade addresses Oakland’s most pressing need, and should make them much, much better. And in case you were wondering, Oakland’s ballpark will help too. Dotel isn’t prone to giving up many hr’s, and will probably do so even less in the vast Oakland Collusiem (of course, Dotel blew his first save opportunity for the A's on Saturday, partly by giving up a 3-run HR to A.J. Pierzinski, but I’m just chalking that up to nerves and, um, jet lag. Yeah. That’s it.) So Oakland just got a lot better, and I think are now heavy favorites to make the playoffs. Boston and Anaheim look out.
Fantasy Impact: Well, obviously, Rhodes loses the little value he had left, and should be dropped in all leagues (except for those that count holds). He should be an above-average set-up man with an ERA in the mid-3.00’s. He might even get a few wins here and there. Dotel, on the other hand, sees his value increase a bit. He’s already viewed as an elite fantasy closer, but the move to a bigger ballpark will certainly help, along with the increased save opportunities. Take a look at the numbers Foulke, Koch and Isringhausen have put up in the past few years. Lots of vultured wins (Dotel got one on Saturday), and TONS of save opportunities. Dotel was borderline top-5 closer, but should now be viewed as Top-5. Especially with those K’s.
The Winners?
Beltran’s speed and ability patrolling the strange parameters of Enron will certainly save the Rocket and Co. a few runs.
Houston Astros: On the surface, it looks like a huge score for the Astros, and well, it was. But only time will tell (pardon the cliché) if this was the right move. Obviously, they’ve acquired the prize of the trade market, and one of the best all-around players in the game. Houston could walk away as the big winners in this deal . . . IF. That’s right, IF. Gotta love that word. In order to not kick themselves come October, they have to win the World Series and/or have the inside track on resigning Beltran next season. Otherwise, it has to be considered somewhat of a failure. There is no doubt that Beltran and Boras will be seeking a huge deal in the offseason, and one has to wonder if the somewhat fiscally conservative Astros can compete with the mountains of cash the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers will be throwing around. But for the now, Houston is a much better team offensively. But did they even need the help? Before looking it up, I thought, "No way, they're stacked." The answer may surprise you. In NL rankings, Houston is ranked 7th in runs scored, and 5th in batting average. Not bad. Yet, interestingly enough, are 13th (out of 16) in Hr’s with 68 (frame of reference: the Cubs are #1 with 99). Now add Beltran. A clear 5-tool player will not only add tremendous stats to that lineup, but make those hitting in front of, and behind him, that much more valuable. That is if Jimy Williams doesn’t screw this up and bat Adam Everett 2nd, which he did on Saturday. Currently, Beltran is batting 3rd, which I think is a mistake, and Bagwell is hitting in the 2 hole. Beltran is the best #2 hitter in baseball, and should remain there to fully maximize his OBP and speed. Bagwell should be dropped down to 3rd, with Berkman and Kent to follow. But that must be too obvious to Jimy. Maybe he can platoon Beltran and Jason Lane, that would be smart. But I digress. There is no pitching around this lineup now. And that alone was a huge win. Add Beltran’s defense, and you see vast improvement in the OF. Granted, Biggio was a very capable CF, but moving him to RF, and having Beltran’s speed and ability patrolling the strange parameters of Enron will certainly save the Rocket and Co. a few runs. And obviously, Houston has a solid rotation with Roger, Oswalt, Miller, Pettite* and the struggling Redding. But what about the pen? Houston had the luxary of their own little Rivera/Wetteland (circa ’96) combination in Lidge and Dotel. The game was, usually, over by the 7th. Now, Dan Miceli steps in as the set-up guy. Lidge has fantastic stuff (some argue he has better stuff than Dotel), and will be a magnificent closer. But how do you get to him. They have a workhorse rotation, but that's a tough division, and there will be many close games. I'm not sure Miceli can cut it. Granted, they did acquire Weathers (for Hidalgo), but that should be something to keep an eye on. So why was Oakland the big winner and not Houston? Dotel will be around in Oaktown for a few more years (they're working on an extension as I type). And with Chavez clogging up 3B for the next decade or so, Teahen would be forced to learn 1B or the OF, in order to make the team. Beltran, on the other hand, could be gone in a few months. Had they waited on trading Dotel, they may have been able to acquire a player still under contract for a few more years. Of course, the rub is, they probably wouldn't be as good as Beltran. No one knows how this will turn out, but it should be interesting to watch. Stay tuned.
P.S. Jimy Williams has gone 12 straight seasons as a manager without a division title. Perhaps what the Astros need is some addition by subtraction? I mean, I’m just saying.
Fantasy Impact: Beltran’s value couldn't really get much higher before the trade. His numbers may improve slightly in the power department, but if he continues to bat 3rd, you’ll see a big drop-off in his stolen bases (see: Alfonso Soriano). Of course, his runs, rbi’s and average should increase, as he’ll see far more pitches to hit with Berkman behind him than he did in KC. And, oh yeah, Brad Lidge suddenly becomes a top closer. He has a tremendous K/9, and take away a two week stretch in June where he struggled, is utterly dominant. He’s a top-10 closer, and could prove to be even better. If he’s available in your league, snag him. I mean, snag him now. Stop reading this. Add it to your bookmarks and run to pick him up (even if he's already taken, bookmark this site anyway, thanks). And then invite me into your league, because he should have been picked up days ago. Finally, Houston batters will see an increase in RBI’s and runs. Not enough to make a huge difference in value, but enough to make you smile.
“Winners, kinda-sorta”.
Kansas City Royals: Well, this one is pretty tricky. I know everyone is saying that the Royals did really well yadda, yadda. And I guess that’s true, considering the circumstances. But it’s really tough to lose a keystone like Beltran on a very young, up-and-coming ball club like the Royals and classify this trade as good for them. With Grienke, Affeldt, Harvey, Sweeney, Berroa, etc. they were slowly but surely developing into a competitive team (see: Cleveland Indians). Of course, without Beltran, that changes the whole landscape in KC. As far as sporting a competitive team, it definitely drops them back a few years. I know, I know, that’s the nature of the game, and Beltran was going to leave anyway, but it’s still got to be tough to take, especially if you love the Royals. But taken relatively, they did get some very good prospects for Sr. Carlos. I’m not sure Baird should have taken the “I need a 3B and a C prospect” route, since it probably limited him in the quality of player he could have acquired. But considering those parameters, he did quite well. David Wright (the #1 3B prospect, Mets) was unavailable, Dallas McPhereson in Anaheim was most likely unavailable (with Glaus’ impending FA and an already stacked OF), Andy Marte (Braves) also unavailable since Schureholz is looking to cut payroll and well, that pretty much left Teahen, Robinson Cano of the Yankees and Moneyball star/ Red Sox uber prospect, Kevin Youkilis. Of course, the Yankees also had C Dioneer Navarro to offer, while the Red Sox had Kelly Shoppach. In the end, John Buck came over from Houston, along with Mike Wood. Teahan could be fantastic. Wood seems to also have dynamite control, but not much velocity, and seems destined for middle relief. Buck, according to Jayson Stark, has the build which “reminds scouts of a young Carlton Fisk. His game, however, is a little short of that, though he will hit some home runs. And if he quickens his release, he will throw out some runners.”
If you want to read how the whole thing went down, check out Peter Gammons newest column. Very interesting stuff. Gives the details on how the trade went down, how it almost fell through, and how the Red Sox came very close to acquiring Beltran. He also touches upon the 3 qualities of a good closer, which was also, as usual, interesting. Love that guy. But I digress.
So there you have it. After all is said in done, how did the Royals do? The answer is . . . who knows? Prospects are always tricky. The best ones sometimes never pan out, and the ones destined for failure sometimes become All-Stars. Considering the situation, Baird did quite well. And a few years from now, we could be talking about how truly brilliant a move this was. Then again, we might not. I guess we’ll see.
Fantasy Impact: Those in keeper leagues may want to pick up Teahen. He should be starting for the Royals next season, since they don’t look to bring Randa back. I would expect early struggle from Mark next season, with a few trips to Triple-A possible. But for a long term prospect, he’s worth taking a risk on. What the heck, Baird did. As for Wood and Buck, I don’t see any fantasy value as of right now. But keep an eye on them.
A symbiosis of winning and losing:
Boston Red Sox: They didn’t get Beltran. The A’s got a lot better. But on the bright side, it prevented them from losing Shoppach and Youkilis, something they would have regretted if they failed to win the World Series and resign Beltran (see: Houston Astros). They could be more fortunate than they think, especially if they don’t resign Varitek this offseason, yet another Boras client.
New York Yankees: They didn’t get Beltran. But, on the brighter side, neither did the Red Sox, and they still have Cano and Navarro to dangle at other teams for pitching. They’ve still got to be one of the favorites to resign Beltran.
Big Losers:
Kansas City Royals fans: Ah well. At least you have Juan Gonzalez. That was sarcasm. It really sucks to lose Beltran, and I imagine the Royals ownership will feel it in their ever-lightening pockets. There’s always George Brett . . . and memories of 1985 . . . and Mark Gubiza . . . and Brett Saberhagen . . . and . . . well, ok, that’s probably it.
Trade #2: Freddy Garcia and Ben Davis to the White Sox, Miguel Olivio, Jeremy Reed and Michael Morse to the Mariners.
This is an interesting trade, and I’m curious to see how it pans out. Let’s look at how it will affect both teams.
Seattle Mariners: At first glance (and second, and third) it seems as if the White Sox gave up too much. I’m not quite sure both Olivio and Reed needed to be included in this deal. Reed is clearly the prize in Seattle’s eyes. He’s 23 and is major league ready, so they say. He’s got 8 hr’s and 37 rbi’s for Triple-A Charlotte. He has performed quite well at the minor league level, hitting .334. Since it looks like firesale time in Seattle, this was a good move on their part. Reed should go quite nicely in that outfield along side Ichiro, and is a definite upgrade over Winn, for next season of course. The M’s also upgraded their catching position with Olivio, who is hitting .270 and has some speed (5 sb’s). Morse looks to be a marginal prospect in Double-A right now. Once again, who knows how he’ll perform? If they are rebuilding, and I don’t see why they wouldn’t because they are freakin' terrible, the Mariners will use a foundation of Ichiro, Reed, Piniero and R.Soriano (if they’re smart), and could be on their way to winning the west . . . in about 5 years.
What will be interesting, is what they do with Ordonez and Frank the Tank Thomas after they get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
Chicago White Sox: Well, I think they gave up a little too much. Ben Davis is an extremely average player. That leaves he and Sandy Alomar Jr. at C. A bit of a downgrade offensively. But, the White Sox sport the best offense in the major leagues, so the impact probably won’t be felt too much. Ordonez has been out for over a month and returns next week. Aaron Rowland has filled in admirably, hitting over .400, and helping the White Sox lead the majors in runs scored. So what does that all mean? Offensively, they were set. They clearly needed another pitcher. They’ve been struggling with that #5 starter all season. In fact, until last week, no pitcher out of that #5 spot has gotten a win for the Sox. Now, you add Garcia, and you have a formidable top-3 in he, Loaiza and Buerhle. Not exactly Schilling-Pedro-(ahem) Lowe or Vazquez-Brown-Mussina, or crosstown rivals Prior-Wood-Zambrano-Maddux, but it definitely makes the White Sox better, maybe not good enough to win the whole thing, but good enough to be the favorites to win the central. Of course, Garcia is a free agent after the season, but he and White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen are reportedly very, very close friends. Unless they can’t work together, I see no reason why they wouldn’t be able to sign him to a long-term deal. What will be interesting, is what they do with Ordonez and Frank the Tank Thomas after they get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
Overall, good trade for both teams. The Mariners definitely got more than Garcia was worth. But the White Sox addressed their most pressing need.
Fantasy Impact: Jeremy Reed is worthy of a keeper spot if your league has a minor league system, or allows you to keep prospects. He should be up for a cup of coffee in September, and pending a decent spring, may be in the starting lineup as early as next season. I think he projects to be like a Jason Bay type prospect/player, perhaps with a little less speed. Olivio’s offensive numbers may decrease a bit, playing in Safeco. I expect his homeruns to drop a bit, but he may get the green light to run a bit more often, since, well, the Mariners have nothing to lose. Morse has no fantasy value as of right now. As for Freddy Garcia. Well, it’s sort of a win-lose sort of thing, literally. Going from the worst run support in the majors, to the best should definitely appease frustrated Garcia owners, and should help him win around 10 or so more games the rest of the way. Unfortunately, it will probably come at the cost of higher ratios. At home, Garcia sports an ERA of 2.61 while an entirely different Garcia appears on the road, posting a 3.91 ERA. I expect, and here's a stretch, an ERA somewhere in the middle. Probably around 3.50 or so, with a WHIP of about 1.30. Decent 3rd starter in your fantasy rotation. Just don't pay too much for him if you're in a 5x5 league. He's valuable, but the trade hasn't turned him into Sandy Koufax. Especially since he's a righty, and, well, nevermind.
So, that sums up the trades from this weekend. Now we get to watch the games and see how everyone was wrong about everything. Ah yes, fun times. Fun times indeed.